Knight Frank has released its analysis of the global "super prime" property market. According to the real estate consultancy, the third quarter of 2024 saw a general slowdown in the ultra-luxury real estate sector across major global cities—except in London. Dubai, which has been one of the most dynamic markets in recent years, experienced a decline in transactions of over 40%, while Miami saw sales drop by 60%. Here are the findings from Knight Frank's "Global Super Prime Intelligence" report.
Super-luxury property market trends
Knight Frank's Global Super-Prime Intelligence Report provides a quarterly snapshot of residential sales conditions for properties worth over $10 million in 12 key international markets. In the three months leading up to the end of September 2024, there were 406 super-prime residential sales (over $10 million) across the 12 monitored markets, with a total value of $7.4 billion. This represents a decline from 496 sales in the previous quarter and 464 in the same period last year. Both transaction numbers and values showed a decrease: down 18% in volume and 17% in value compared to the previous quarter. The main trends are as follows:
Market slowdown
In Q3 2024, there were 406 sales of properties valued over $10 million, marking an 18% drop in volume and a 17% drop in value compared to the previous three months. This slowdown is largely due to political and economic uncertainties, particularly in the United States.
London’s performance
London was the only market among the 12 cities to see a quarterly increase in sales of properties above $10 million. The city recorded 51 sales, a slight improvement over the 47 reported in Q2, marking the first increase since Q3 of last year. This uptick supports speculation that the market was driven by a desire to secure deals ahead of the new Labour government budget. However, London remains far from its post-pandemic peak. Between 2021 and 2023, London averaged $1.5 billion in super-prime sales per quarter, but this year, no quarter has surpassed the $1 billion mark.
Sustainable growth after Dubai’s boom
The report highlights that Dubai is entering a phase of more sustainable growth after the pandemic boom. Although the 83 sales in Dubai this quarter are well above the average since 2021, they represent a nearly 40% drop compared to the same period last year. However, over the 12 months to September 2024, the number of sales in Dubai has more than tripled compared to 2021 and more than doubled compared to 2022.
US market in waiting
The performance of the super-prime market in the United States reflects the desire for greater political certainty following the elections. Palm Beach, which typically peaks in the first quarter of each year, recorded the lowest sales data since the end of 2022. Miami also saw a significant decline, with sales dropping by nearly 60% compared to Q3 2023—a notable decrease even when factoring in the normal seasonal fluctuations of the market.
Luxury real estate in Italy
The luxury real estate market in Italy in 2024 is showing strong performance, driven by international demand and increasing interest in properties offering high quality of life. Rome is emerging as a leading market, with both the buying and rental sectors seeing positive growth, particularly for luxury homes with excellent services and sustainability features. Milan, Venice, and other top cities are also experiencing price increases, particularly in the premium segments. When it comes to "super prime" properties with prices above 3 million euros, Tuscany is the region where most properties can be found.
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