A freeze in Russian gas supplies is something that isn't beyond the realm of possibility and would have knock on effects on Europe's economy. We have the details.
Consequences for Italy: A freeze in Russian gas supplies would reportedly cause Italy's GDP to fall by 0.6% in the best case scenario, or up to 5.7% in the worse case. This is according to the International Monetary Fund, which has calculated how much the lack of Russian gas would weigh on EU economies.
According to the IMF, a total Russian shutdown would have disastrous effects on European economies. Twelve months after a total shutdown, the organisation estimates that some countries could lose several percentage points of GDP output. Some central European countries - Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia - as well as Italy would be the hardest hit.
In a worst-case scenario in which the continent does not achieve rapid integration of LNG, encounters many adaptation problems, and decides to protect private households, not just industries, from gas shortages, between five and six percentage points could be reduced from GDP production in these countries. Germany and Poland would fare slightly better with losses of between two and three percentage points in this scenario.
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