What were the mortgage trends in Italy at the end of March? Let's have a look at the statistics for the financing of property purchases after the first month of health emergency according to Tecnocasa.
2019 statistics
Italian households received loans for the purchase of housing for almost 49 billion euros in 2019; according to Tecnocasa, compared to 2018 there was a drop in payments of -3.2%, for a countervalue of 1.626 billion euros. This is the result of the figures reported in the report Banche e istituzioni finanziarie - IV trimestre 2019 (Banks and financial institutions - 4th quarter 2019) published by the Bank of Italy at the end of March.
With regard to the fourth and final quarter of the year, there was an increase in volumes paid out compared to the same period in 2018 of +9,3% with 15.307 billion euros paid out for mortgages.
As expected, the last quarter of 2019 saw a reduction in the contraction in mortgage payouts that had accumulated mainly in the second and third quarters of the year.
In more detail, mortgage payout figures show that mortgage transactions in support of a property purchase have returned to a positive level (+1.3%); in the third quarter the decrease was -6.6%.
In August 2019, the fall in interest rates led to a subsequent boom in demand in September, which, as expected, gave effect to the last quarter of the year; in particular, subrogation operations recorded an increase in volumes of 68% (previous quarter -37.2%). In the fourth quarter of 2019, subrogation operations accounted for over 18% of the market.
"The closing picture of 2019 sees a solid and well-set market," comments Renato Landoni, President of the mortgage brokers, Kìron Partner, "which will be affected in the coming months by economic and financial trends influenced by the health emergency caused by the COVID-19 virus".
What can we expect in the coming months?
"Currently we can only say that mortgage payouts are expected to decrease in the first quarter of 2020", says Landoni. The lockdown phase of the Italian system will only have an impact on the payout of credit, because as of today the stipulation of the acts are possible only in cases of extreme urgency. It is assumed, therefore, a decrease between 3 and 4 billion euros only in the first quarter.
What will happen in the world of finite emergency loans?
"Once back to normal, the lending policies of the lending institutions will have to be interpreted," is the opinion of Landoni. "Ultimately, the index of household confidence in their economic and financial expectations will be crucial. There are many variables to be taken into account in order to make a reliable analysis of the development of the mortgage market in 2020. A positive signal is linked to the development of rates that will remain low for a long time".
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