Real Estate
GTRES

Interest rates will weigh on house prices in Europe for a long time. This was stated in the S&P report 'European Housing Markets: Sustained Correction Ahead'. According to Standard & Poor's analysts, housing values will hit rock bottom by the end of 2024. The rating agency believes that rising interest rates in Europe will lead to a sustained correction of nominal house prices in most countries on the continent.

Rising mortgage interest rates, what consequences for house prices

According to S&P, 'rising mortgage rates are the main cause of weakening demand and falling prices'. Despite this, "potential demand and housing needs in Europe remain high". For the rating agency, there are some mitigating factors to this trend, the main ones being "the generally slow transition of non-performing loans to household balance sheets, thanks to the often high shares of fixed-rate contracts in the total, and the continued strength of European labour markets".

The Standard & Poor's report points out that, "in a market that will remain subject to higher borrowing costs in real terms even after renewed central bank rate easing, a stronger rebound in house prices is unlikely after the correction has run its course". According to the rating agency, there will be no slumps, however, but the declines will be substantial, peaking at "around 12% in Germany and the UK" and averaging above 8% almost everywhere by the end of 2024.

Real Estate
GTRES

One particular consideration concerns Italy, where - according to S&P - "government subsidies for energy efficiency measures triggered a strong rebound in demand at the beginning of this year, which will gradually fade until mid-2025. As a result, the correction in Italy will be delayed and will be less pronounced", meaning about 6.3 per cent from the peak.

S&P's forecasts for 2023-2025 published in recent months spoke of declines in house prices in various European countries and excluded a rebound in the next three years, pointing out that the price adjustment linked to higher interest rates could take years due to other factors contributing to house prices.